If you had told people at the start of 2021 that a coin called Shiba Inu (CRYPTO:SHIB) would rise more than 400% in a single year, they probably would have laughed. If you told them that a coin which began the year at $0.007 would hit highs of over $0.003 in mid-December, they might have thought you were joking.

如果您在2021年初告诉人们，一个叫做Shiba Inu的硬币（Crypto：Shib）将在一年内上升超过400％，那么他们可能会笑。如果您告诉他们，一年开始的硬币在12月中旬开始时的高价超过0.003美元，他们可能会以为您在开玩笑。

Yet, both of those things happened, and in the final analysis, it is probably a good thing that most people did not believe it was possible. If they had, they might have flocked into the meme coin in such vast numbers that it would have quickly used up all of the liquidity in the cryptocurrency markets, sending the coin into a downward spiral.

然而，这两件事都发生了，在最终分析中，大多数人认为这是不可能的，这可能是一件好事。如果有的话，他们可能已经大量涌入模因硬币，以至于它将很快消耗出加密货币市场中的所有流动性，使硬币陷入螺旋式下降。

Of course, several other coins also saw triple-digit percentage gains in 2021, and there was a broader speculative frenzy in risky assets, such as small-cap stocks, as people had an abundance of disposable income due to government stimulus measures. However, meme coins were arguably the riskiest asset class of all, and they attracted the most attention from smaller investors.

当然，其他几枚硬币在2021年还看到了三位数的收益，而且风险资产（例如小型股票）的投机性狂潮更广泛，因为人们由于政府刺激措施而产生的可支配收入丰富。但是，模因硬币可以说是所有人中最风险的资产类别，它们吸引了小型投资者的最大关注。

So, what were the conditions that led to this speculative frenzy, and might we see a similar environment in the future?

那么，导致这种投机性疯狂的条件是什么，我们将来会看到类似的环境吗？

What went up...

发生了什么...

The environment that produced the major price spikes in both Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) and Shiba Inu can be described as a speculative frenzy.

在Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）和Shiba Inu中产生主要价格峰值的环境可以描述为投机性疯狂。

Now, that’s a bit of a tautology, as super-speculative and ultra-risky investments in valueless meme coins simply do not happen at large scale outside of such conditions. But what causes those extremely speculative periods that tend to pump up the riskiest of risk assets?

现在，这是一种重言式，因为对无价值的模因硬币的超规范和超风险投资根本不会在这种情况以外的大规模发生。但是，是什么原因导致那些倾向于提高风险资产风险的极端投机期？

In a word, liquidity, which is to say the amount of money circulating in the cryptocurrency markets and also in traditional markets. As it pertains to meme coins, liquidity has a couple of components.

总而言之，流动性是说在加密货币市场以及传统市场中流通的资金数量。由于它与模因硬币有关，因此流动性具有几个组成部分。

The factor that most investors will be the most familiar with is simply how much money potential speculators have in their pockets and in their investment accounts on average. When people are being given money actively, like with the pandemic-era economic stimulus policies, it directly frees up more of their capital to be allocated to investments.

大多数投资者最熟悉的因素仅仅是潜在投机者在口袋里和投资账户中拥有多少钱。当人们积极地赚钱时，就像大流行时期的经济刺激政策一样，它直接释放了更多的资本，可以分配给投资。

If they are already feeling like their standard and less-risky set of investments are sufficiently supplied with capital, it’s natural for people to look further out on the risk curve, toward smaller growth stocks and cryptocurrencies. With enough slack, some people may be willing to take outright gambles in (misguided) hopes of leveraging their disposable income into a dramatically larger amount of money.

如果他们已经觉得自己的标准和不太风险的投资已经充分提供了资本，那么人们自然而然地望着风险曲线，朝着较小的增长库存和加密货币介绍。有了足够的懈怠，有些人可能愿意彻底赌博（误导）将其可支配收入利用为大量的钱。

The other key factor influencing liquidity is the cost of borrowing money, as determined by the Federal Reserve’s prime interest rate. That cost is largely incurred by banks and institutional investors, but it trickles down to consumer borrowing costs as well. When holders of massive sums of capital can take out cheaper loans, their appetite for risky plays increases, as the required rate of return on their investments to cover their borrowing fees and turn a profit becomes lower.

影响流动性的另一个关键因素是借钱的成本，取决于美联储的主要利率。银行和机构投资者在很大程度上产生了这一成本，但也降低了消费者借贷成本。当大量资本的持有人可以利用较便宜的贷款时，他们对风险戏剧的需求就会增加，因为所需的投资回报率以支付其借贷费用并将利润变成较低。

The big players are probably not ever going to be buying Dogecoin or Shiba Inu directly, but they will doubtlessly invest in risky growth stocks once again, pumping the prices of those assets, and thereby creating a wealth effect that makes smaller holders feel richer, and thus more confident in taking on riskier plays themselves.

大玩家可能永远不会直接购买Dogecoin或Shiba Inu，但毫无疑问，他们会再次投资于风险的增长股票，倾斜这些资产的价格，从而产生财富效应，从而使较小的持有人变得更加富有，从而更有信心，从而更有自信地承担风险更高的游戏。

Both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu saw their prices explode most recently during the pandemic period, specifically in late 2021. People’s disposable incomes were supplemented by the government, and liquidity was extremely easy to come by for consumers as well as for financial institutions. In other words, the conditions were perfect for a meme stock surge.

Dogecoin和Shiba Inu都看到他们的价格最近在大流行时期，特别是在2021年底。政府补充了人们的一次性收入，对于消费者以及金融机构来说，流动性非常容易获得。换句话说，这些条件非常适合模因库存激增。

Take a look at this chart:

看一下此图表：

As you can see, while it didn’t result in breaching the all-time highs, all it took to send Dogecoin sharply upward more recently was the mere anticipation of interest rates falling further.

如您所见，虽然这并没有导致违反历史最高的高点，但最近将Dogecoin急剧向上发送的只是预期利率进一步下降。

Now, there wasn’t another meme coin that has reached multi-billion heights in the same way as either Dogecoin or Shiba Inu, but on a long enough timescale, it is inevitable so long as there are additional periods of increasing liquidity and personal income. During that same period, these two established coins will almost certainly rise significantly.

现在，没有其他模因硬币以与Dogecoin或Shiba Inu相同的方式达到数十亿个高度，但是在足够长的时间范围内，只要有更多的流动性和个人收入增加，这是不可避免的。在同一时期，这两个已建立的硬币几乎肯定会显着上升。

Resist the urge to gamble

抵制赌博的冲动

After they peak, both of these coins will crash sharply, and there is no reason to believe that they will recover and become good investments for those who purchased them at the top, although it is technically possible.

在达到顶峰之后，这两枚硬币都会急剧崩溃，没有理由相信它们会恢复并成为那些以最高购买的人的良好投资，尽管从技术上讲是可能的。

Given that these gambles or others like them tend to flourish in times when you’re likely to have a little bit more cash on hand, a far smarter move is to keep an eye on liquidity conditions and be mindful of what your own inclinations are likely to be. Resist the urge to take gambles when you have more money than usual, especially if your portfolio is already doing well. The better option here is to shore up your safer plays rather than to throw your money away.

鉴于这些赌博或其他类似的赌博往往会在您可能拥有更多现金的时候蓬勃发展，因此，更聪明的举动是关注流动性条件，并注意自己的倾向可能是什么。当您比平时多的钱时，请抵制去赌博的冲动，尤其是如果您的投资组合已经做得很好。这里更好的选择是提高您的更安全的戏剧，而不是扔掉您的钱。